An epidemiologist from the U.K., Neil Ferguson, is the man who came up with the coronavirus model that initially made a prediction about how many deaths we would see as a result of the coronavirus.
His model provided numbers for both the U.K. as well as the United States.
Now, Ferguson has drastically revised his model and the numbers are much more different than what he had predicted initially.
In the beginning, Ferguson predicted that approximately 500,000 people would die in the U.K. alone. He has now reduced that number to about 20,000 and actually, half of those would have died anyway as a result of poor health conditions.
He didn't explicitly mention the numbers in the United States, but if the correlation applies equally to the U.S., then our count may be closer to around 88,000 deaths instead of over 2,000,000.
According to The Daily Wire,
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.
New York Times reporter tweeted this about the study in a series of tweets:
"This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID
He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary.
One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested."
2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) March 26, 2020
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