Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville admitted he was wrong about Kamala Harris winning the 2024 election. He had been confident. He even wrote an op-ed in The New York Times titled Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win.
As Election Day neared, Carville made the rounds. He was sure Democrats would keep Trump out of the White House. He believed Harris had the edge.
"The polls looked even, alright?" Carville told Fox News. "I thought that Harris had more money. She also had more storefront locations, she had more doorknockers, definitely had better surrogates with two ex-presidents out there. Trump was going around with Scott Baio or something…. And I thought a combination of all of that would be worth a point and a half. It was not."
Trump won by that exact margin—1.5 points in the popular vote. He took the presidency with 312 electoral votes.
"You relearn the oldest lesson in politics," Carville said. "The greatest motivator of turnout, of voting, of persuasion is a reason. If you don't have a reason, you can't [win]." He admitted people had a reason to vote for Trump. "The one reason that they were looking for, I should have taken this into more account, was people wanted some change."
Carville pointed to Harris' infamous The View interview. When asked what she would have done differently from Biden, she gave a disastrous response: "There is not a thing that comes to mind."
"She completely flubs it," Carville said. "Well, 70% of people, we'll have time to argue whether they were right or wrong, 70% of people want something different. Well, give it to them!… [Say] anything you want other than 'I can't think of anything.' Worse answer ever given. Ever given."
Despite her loss, Harris is already stirring speculation for 2028. Early polls show her leading potential Democratic rivals. Some say she could run for California governor in 2026 after Gavin Newsom leaves office.
Carville wouldn’t say if she should run. "I don't propose that somebody should or shouldn't run for office," he said. "If she runs for president again, she's got to be a lot better candidate than she was in 2024. Maybe she is."
He still believes an open primary would have made her stronger. He criticized those, like CNN’s Bakari Sellars, who opposed the idea. He called it a mistake by the Democratic Party.
But would he personally want her to run again? He dodged. "Well, I mean, first of all, I think everybody should run," he said. "I have a lot of friends. I would say you should run. You know, the more, the merrier, I think."
Carville acknowledged her strong resume. "She's a former vice president. She's a former prosecutor in a big city, apparently very good at it. She's a former state attorney general. So, you know, to the vice president's impressive resume, I mean, who am I to say?"
Still, he was blunt. Winning the nomination would be tough. "It would be very, very difficult for her to win the nomination, but it would be difficult for anybody else," he admitted.
Looking back, Carville owned his mistake. "I was wrong," he said. "It was a mistake." He urged Democrats to admit when they're wrong. The public doesn’t care if you mess up. "The public will never care if you're wrong," he said. "When they'll turn on you is when you're boring or predictable."
His final lesson? Don't be dull. "If you don't say something in a colorful way that sticks with people, you know what you're saying? It's vapid stuff. And I think the public is just tired of talking points. They're just worn out."