Vice President JD Vance has solidified his position as the clear early frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, according to a new Yale youth poll. The poll found that 51% of respondents would vote for Vance in the primary.
Vance dominates the field, leading Donald Trump Jr. by a massive 43 points. Outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis places a distant third with only 6% support.
The survey offered a fascinating look at the generational shift within the GOP. Among Republicans ages 18–22, Vance is the only candidate who leads President Trump, showing an 8-point advantage.
The current Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, recently confirmed the changing dynamic, stating publicly that Vance is the undeniable GOP front-runner in 2028.
However, the survey showed that DeSantis is currently viewed as the most electable candidate by the respondents. A commanding 79% of those surveyed said DeSantis would be more likely to win the 2028 general election, regardless of their personal preference.
Vance’s commanding lead vanishes in a hypothetical scenario where President Trump seeks a third term. Trump draws 50% support in that scenario, crushing Vance at 19% and all "other" candidates at 5%.
The youth poll data confirms that young voters are looking for new leadership. Only 20% of the youngest respondents (ages 18–22) said they would support Trump in a 2028 GOP primary, compared to a majority of respondents over 45 who would back him.
On the Democrat side, California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 primary field with 25% support. He is followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18% and AOC at 16%. Newsom is also overwhelmingly viewed as the Democrats’ strongest general-election prospect.