Trump Boom: GDP for Q2 at 4.1%

A Trump boom happened during the second quarter of 2018. The gross domestic product (GDP) nearly doubled from the first quarter, climbing to 4.1%, compared to the revised total of 2.2%

This is the highest the GDP has been since the third quarter of 2014 and it is the third highest since the recession started in 2008. Over the course of the past four quarters, the number is at 3.1%, which economists consider to be very strong.

In other statistics, Q2 saw consumer spending grow by 4% and nonresidential business investment increased by 7.3% which are also considered to be very strong numbers.

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Trump told reporters these very high numbers are “sustainable” while taking a victory lap around the South Lawn at the White House.


Exports rose in part as farmers rushed to get soybeans to China ahead of expected retaliatory tariffs to take effect in the coming days. Declines in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment were the main drags, the report said.

The tariffs as well as last year’s massive tax cut both were key factors in the growth.

“Bottom line, if it wasn’t for a big upside to inflation, GDP would have been much better because of the upside in spending, boost in exports and government spending which offset an unexpected sharp decline in inventories and no change in gross private investment,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

It’s important to keep in mind that a full year of GDP growth hasn’t topped 3% in 14 years. Also, summer is often the highest of the year.

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