Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx have been the experts that have been trusted to advise President Trump in making the correct decisions with regards to how to handle the pandemic.
The sad truth is that in this case, his experts carry a lot of weight. But the problem with that is that we now know that the model that they used to make their evaluations is garbage.
"The big projection being that 2.2 million people would die if we did nothing. That was another decision we made, close it up. That was a big decision that we made. Two very smart people walked into my office and said listen these are your alternatives. And that was a projection of 1.5 to 2.2 million people would die if we didn’t close it up. That’s a lot of people."
In a report from the New York Times, Sheri Fink explains how the Imperial College researchers shared their projections with Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx and used this model to come up with their estimations of millions of American deaths.
Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.
To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”
That is because different steps, intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, could only cut the predicted death toll by half, the new report said…
…Asked at a news conference with President Trump about what had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain.
Since these ridiculous numbers were put out based on junk models, over 30 million people have lost their jobs. We're nowhere near that 2 million death count. We're not even at 5% of that amount.
A software engineer who studied the model should be rejected and abandoned immediately:
"All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial’s modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn’t under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one.
On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves."
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